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BTC/USD64,212+2.41%
ETH/USD3,418+1.86%
EUR/USD1.0842-0.12%
XAU/USD2,398.5+0.74%
NAS10019,840+1.12%
GBP/USD1.2715-0.28%
US3039,410+0.46%
USOIL78.92-0.91%
SOL/USD162.4+4.20%
JPN22538,720+0.33%
Home/Market analysis
ANALYTICS DESK

Levels, bias and invalidation — weekly.

Six instruments, one page: where the structure sits, what breaks it, and which event risk is on the calendar. Written for traders working inside a drawdown limit.

Each note states a bias, the levels that support it and — most importantly — the price that invalidates it. If we cannot name an invalidation, we do not publish the note.

This is educational commentary from the Leofins analytics desk. It is not investment advice, not a signal service and not a prediction of future prices.

6
Instruments covered
Weekly
Publication cadence
Mon 07:00
UTC release time
300+
Tradable symbols
THIS WEEK

Desk notes on six majors

Educational commentary from the Leofins analytics desk. Levels are reference points for your own plan — not signals or investment advice.

XAU/USDLONG04 Aug 2026

Gold holds the 2,3xx shelf into the Fed decision

Buyers keep defending the prior breakout shelf while real yields drift lower. A daily close back under the shelf invalidates the structure and flips the bias flat.

Support2,318
Resistance2,412
Invalidation2,296
EUR/USDSHORT04 Aug 2026

Euro rallies keep getting sold into the London fix

Rate differentials still favour the dollar and every push above the weekly open has faded within two sessions. Watch the CPI print for the first real test.

Supply1.0980
Target1.0745
Invalidation1.1040
NAS100NEUTRAL03 Aug 2026

Index compresses ahead of mega-cap earnings

Realised volatility is at a three-month low inside a tightening range. Wait for the range break rather than fading the edges into event risk.

Range high20,410
Range low19,660
TriggerBreak + retest
BTC/USDLONG02 Aug 2026

Bitcoin builds a higher low on thinning weekend books

Weekend liquidity is thin, so size down. The structure stays constructive while the higher low holds on the daily.

Higher low62,400
Resistance71,200
Invalidation59,800
GBP/JPYSHORT01 Aug 2026

Intervention risk caps the cross

The carry trade still works until it does not. Keep stops wide of the round numbers and size for a two-figure gap.

Supply198.40
Target191.20
Invalidation200.10
USOILNEUTRAL01 Aug 2026

Crude stuck between supply headlines and soft demand

Two-sided headline risk keeps intraday follow-through poor. Trade the levels, not the narrative, and avoid holding into inventory data.

Support71.80
Resistance79.40
EventEIA Wed

⚠ Educational content only. Past performance and stated levels do not predict future results.

WEEK AHEAD

High-impact releases, all times UTC

News trading is allowed on every Leofins account — but spreads widen and fills slip. Plan size around these prints.

DAYTIMECCYIMPACTEVENTPREVFCST
Mon 10 Aug09:00EURMEDSentix Investor Confidence-6.2-5.4
Mon 10 Aug15:00USDLOWWholesale Inventories m/m0.2%0.3%
Tue 11 Aug02:30AUDMEDWestpac Consumer Sentiment1.9%—
Tue 11 Aug12:30USDHIGHCore CPI m/m0.2%0.3%
Wed 12 Aug08:30GBPHIGHGDP q/q (prelim)0.6%0.4%
Wed 12 Aug14:30USDMEDEIA Crude Oil Inventories-3.1M-1.2M
Thu 13 Aug11:45EURHIGHECB Main Refinancing Rate3.75%3.50%
Thu 13 Aug12:30USDHIGHInitial Jobless Claims232K228K
Fri 14 Aug12:30USDHIGHNon-Farm Payrolls206K185K
Fri 14 Aug14:00USDMEDMichigan Consumer Sentiment66.467.1
SESSIONS

When liquidity actually shows up

Sydney

22:00 – 07:00 UTC

Thin books, AUD/NZD focus

Tokyo

00:00 – 09:00 UTC

JPY crosses, index futures

London

07:00 – 16:00 UTC

Peak FX liquidity

New York

12:00 – 21:00 UTC

US data, indices, metals

NEWS RULES

What is allowed around releases

News tradingAllowed on all plansYou may hold and open positions through economic releases on every Leofins challenge and funded account.
SlippageFilled at marketAround high-impact releases spreads widen and fills can slip. Size for the gap, not the average spread.
Weekend holdingAllowedPositions may stay open over the weekend, including on crypto pairs with no swap.
Latency arbitrageNot allowedExploiting feed latency or dealing errors around releases voids the account.
FAQ

Analysis FAQ

No. We publish structure, levels and invalidation points as reference material. Entries, sizing and management are your decisions.

Every Monday at 07:00 UTC, with mid-week revisions when a level is invalidated by a major release.

A rotating set of six: majors, gold, crude, a US index and a major crypto pair — chosen by trading volume on Leofins accounts.

Yes. News trading is permitted on all Leofins plans, but spreads widen and fills can slip, so size accordingly.

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